We get an ongoing flow of oil consumption numbers. Isn't it interesting that despite substantial drops in global economic activity - including transportation and shipping - that the amount of oil hasn't declined much? If we in the U.S. face unemployment of 9.8% and U6 unemployment around 17%, then it seems odd that the oil used remains about the same.

Are we, perhaps, applying the wrong metric? Should we, instead, consider the energy we consume? Now if we examine our oil consumption through that lens, then the use of net energy has declined from previous levels. How so? Simply this. Old fields have produced oil with a low energy cost (a high EROEI). Often, new sources have a high energy cost (a low EROEI). So even though we're consuming as many barrels of crude as before, our actual consumption of energy has declined.

Suppose this notion is valid. What does it imply? If (if, not when) a recovery occurs, then the demand for energy must increase. But the available net energy...

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Do you ever observe things that make you stop, wonder what universe you're in, and conclude you're not in Kansas anymore? I do that, perhaps too often.

Today, I talked with two people in a seriously upscale neighborhood (houses from $500,000 up to $10,000,000 and more) who were trying to get estimates done for some work. One was for landscaping, and the other was for a burglar alarm. Neither one could get companies to even give them an estimate - and they're both nice folks, so it isn't a matter of attitude. If we're in a bad economy, if people are hurting for work or business - why on Earth can't people even get an estimate on some work they want done? Curious.

Another person I talked to manages a restaurant. He can't get people to show up on time consistently, and they won't do the various tasks they're supposed to do. The applicants and employees are simply not willing to do they job for which they are paid. In a bad economy? With high unemployment? Curious.

And still another...

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Clearly, the web of supply, demand, and interconnected services is beyond the scope of a single post - or, for that matter, a single thick volume. And yet, sometimes one can glimpse the greater problem by considering a much smaller issue. Let us consider one such example.

On the NBC evening news tonight, the status of the nation's hospitals with regard to H1N1 was discussed. According to the piece, hospitals run a lean operation, with much of the equipment used by intensive care units at 95% of capacity. The discussion pointed out that this could be problematic if large numbers of people contracted H1N1 and needed care.

This tells us something else. Should there be any interruption of the normal flow of goods, the hospitals could face rapid degradation of their ability. If a piece of equipment fails, there are few (or no) reserves to stand in its place. A lean operation also suggests a dearth of spare parts. Thus, any crisis which causes health problems may overwhelm the health...

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It appears that many who consider the possibility of peak oil have a doomstead some distance away - hundreds of miles at least. The premise seems to be that at some point, some level of danger, the individual(s) will go on a trek to the new location and ride out the storm, secure with freeze dried food and a variety of weapons. In essence, they have assumed both a slow, or even a gentle decline and also a uniformly graceful degradation of the system.

Let us explore these ideas. When some sort of crisis occurs, the first and natural instinct is to hoard. When people believe that something is about to happen, or has happened, they clean out the store shelves and fill their tanks with gasoline. Thus, even if the supply lines for goods and fuel are at normal levels, human reactions tend to disrupt the flow and cause shortages. The concern provoked by such occurrences exacerbates the reaction leading to panic.

Now suppose that the problem is neither brief nor immediately transitory....

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A formal definition is HERE

In essence, it is the requirement to function according to a set of concepts that one doesn't agree with or regards as false. A lot of people face that challenge, not just Peak Oil types. Much of our society recognizes that the train is well and truly off the tracks, and that life in the future is likely to be worse than it is today. At the same time, the mass media, along with social pressure, emphasize optimism. In essence, Americans are told to save more and to shop - contradictory behaviors - at the same time.

And the consequences? Perhaps the mild (or not so mild) craziness we observe has its roots within the disparity between reality and the required behavior patterns. We might reflect on how such trends might develop.

Organizational leaders, from the top on down, owe their first allegiance to the organization. Some take care of themselves first, of course,...

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