we will all, after a fashion, be worse off.

It has long been my contention that homo sapien will respond to a return to the steel grip of scarcity by turning on one another: nation against nation, tribe against tribe, a father against his son, daughters against their mothers. This may be unavoidable but we each have an individual interest in seeing this manifestation of scarcity postponed as long as possible.

While there are thing that an individual or family can do to insulate themselves from the social cannibalism to come, no one is truly safe. The greater the distance between the breakdown in civility and the new equilibrium which will emerge the greater our exposure to risk. We will be thrust into a game of Russian Roulette. We are fools if we think we want to play any longer than forced to.

If anthropological global warming turns out to be a fatally flawed premise we can expect the forces of anti-intellectualism to strengthen their hand and it will become even more politically difficult to deal with the problems that face us. Fear of the conspiracy stokes the worse of human tribalism. Fears of Jewish conspiracies underwrote many a pogrom and ultimately the holocaust. The purges of Stalin and Mao were rooted in a fear of the bourgeoisie. And, to be fair, how many native Americans died, even after they accepted Anglo dominance because the "only good redskin is a dead redskin?"

Do you already find it hard to talk about peak oil to friends and family? It will be a lot harder if pleading conspiracy becomes an accepted alternative to arguing geology. Think that finger pointing is used as an alternative to argument and reason in domestic and international politics? Just wait until there is a shadowy malevolent cabal which requires merciless resistance and justifies what would, in civilised times, be considered a crime.

We are all homo sapien. When we watch the killing fields, when we see mothers giving their children the red kool-aid, when we read of the Ukrainian famine, when we watch the guards supervising the crematoriums, when we hear cries for mercy met with blunt force to the back of the head, when we witness these things we are looking in a mirror. An individual can resist; people can not and we are all hostage to people.

If anthropological global warming turns out to be a fatally flawed premise

I've yet to see evidence that it is, though. Were you thinking of the hacked emails? After having read about this, it seems pretty clear that there's no "there" there. No smoking conspiracy gun, as much as some of the deniers are painting it as such.

--Steve

The idea was sparked by a conversation with a college roommate who is a AGW denier and the recognition that I, myself am dependent upon the expertise of others. My intuition is that AGW is real but, fundamentally, I have to confess I do not know.

This post is more a thought experiment than anything. What if it was disproved (or just brought into widespread doubt)? What would be the social consequences (which is something I feel a little better able to evaluate)?

Ludi, if it helps with the thought experiment you could read. "if a sizable minority came to believe it was a hoax."